Risk prediction of very early recurrence, death and progression after acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Early recurrent strokes lead to extended hospitalization and high number of complications. We investigated three stroke scores, the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), the ABCD(2) and the Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days (RRE-90) for their prognostic value to predict early recurrent stroke, death and progressive stroke. METHODS Clinical and radiological data from 1727 consecutive patients with ischaemic stroke, being admitted to the stroke unit, were evaluated retrospectively. Predictive value of stroke scores was tested for early recurrence within 7 days, death and progressive stroke expressed as observational risk and area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC). RESULTS Early recurrent stroke occurred in 56 patients (3.2%), 40 patients (2.3%) died within the first 7 days and 125 patients (7.2%) had a progressive stroke. ESRS was not predictive for early recurrence, death or progressive stroke. ABCD(2) score was predictive for death (P<0.01; χ(2); AUROC, 0.65; 0.58-0.72), and progressive stroke (P<0.001; χ(2); AUROC, 0.70; 0.66-0.74). RRE-90 predicted early recurrent stroke (P<0.001; χ(2); AUROC, 0.65; 0.58-0.73), early death (P<0.001; χ(2); AUROC, 0.72; 0.66-0.78) and progressive stroke (P<0.001; χ(2); AUROC, 0.66; 0.61-0.71). CONCLUSIONS RRE-90 bears high potential to not only predict early recurrence but also death and progression after ischaemic stroke. ABCD(2) appears to be useful to predict risk of death and progression. These findings have relevant clinical implications for early triage of patients being admitted to stroke units.